Modelling CESEE Countries Export Dynamics: Global Vector Autoregressive Approach

Abstract One of the main aspects transition process in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries was trade liberalisation. As their financial systems are still underdeveloped channel is dominant shock transmitter, this paper focuses on export dynamics for a selected set CESEE countries. The employed methodology, Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) approach, allows modelling interactions spillovers among Furthermore, it enables joint exports imports. This particular importance as opening new markets enabled astonishing growth, but also opened to foreign products. empirical analysis reveals that German imports has larger impact countries’ than output. Moreover, results indicate role real exchange rate less pronounced comparison previous similar research.